Oral health: adults - future projections

At the UK level, recent work using data from the Adult Dental Health Surveys (ADHS) (Steele et al, 2000) has indicated that the proportion of adults retaining their natural teeth is likely to continue to grow substantially over time, and the proportion who are edentulous is likely to decline. However, people who are edentulous will obviously remain so, and a small group - generally from more deprived socio-economic backgrounds - will continue to become edentulous. The replacement of missing teeth with partial dentures will continue to be a common pattern of treatment for the foreseeable future.

Projections should be viewed within the context of the Scottish target set in the SEHD's Action plan for improving oral health and modernising NHS dental services (2005) that, by 2010, 65% of 55-74-year-olds will retain some natural teeth. In 1998, 67% of those aged 55-64 and 46% of those aged 65 and over had retained some natural teeth. This indicates that whilst some progress has been made, more is required in order to meet the target, particularly in the older age groups.

The projections suggest that attitudes to dental care have changed significantly in the last 20 years, with a reduction in edentulousness and many more people retaining teeth into older age. Thus, the type of dental care required by older cohorts will have to reflect the changing needs and expectations of the forthcoming generations who will require more complex dental care. These issues are likely to have a significant impact on future (increasing) demand for dental services.

Trends from the Scottish ADHS can be projected into the future and applied alongside population projections to predict future numbers of adults with certain dental characteristics. This may provide some insight into the potential demand for dental services. More...
Adults with no natural teeth
Adults with 21 or more teeth