Oral health: adults with no natural teeth - future projections

 

The linked Excel chart   (34Kb) shows historical Scottish data from the Adult Dental Health Survey (ADHS) on the percentages of the population with no natural teeth (edentulous), together with some projections. The projections assume the historical patterns continue in the future, and the historical decrease amongst the younger age groups has been applied to the older age groups.

The chart shows that the edentulousness percentages for each age group decreased between 1972 and 1998.  It is projected that by 2028, edentulousness in the age groups under 55 will have bottomed out at 1% or less.

Applying these percentages to population projections allows the prediction of the numbers of edentulous people in the future, as shown in Table 1. In all age groups, and in the total population, decreases are predicted. The total edentulous population is projected to decrease by 66% between 1998 (736,700) and 2028 (264,000).

Table 1: Numbers of adults in Scotland with no natural teeth (edentulous) ('000s), by age group, 1972 - 1998 (historical ) and 2008 - 2028 (projected) 
 

Age group	Year
	Historical data				Projected data
	1972	1978	1988	1998	2008	2018	2028
16-24	15.7	17.1	8.2	6.4	6.0	3.4	1.3
25-34	81.4	70.2	15.2	0.0	5.9	4.1	1.5
35-44	214.0	163.3	47.0	30.4	11.9	3.8	1.6
45-54	330.6	319.3	187.7	85.7	43.7	17.6	5.7
55-64	461.8	360.7	261.6	175.0	108.3	48.5	19.4
65+	553.6	609.3	544.7	439.1	381.3	321.1	234.6
Total	1657.3	1539.9	1064.5	736.7	557.1	398.5	264.0

Sources:  ADHS (1972 to 1998); and DHSRU projections (2008 to 2028) assuming linear decreases and using 2002-based population projections from the Government Actuary's Department.