Oral health: children - future projections
Cross-sectional epidemiological surveys provide a snapshot of disease levels in a community which can be used to predict future disease trends. A cohort model was built based on previous work by the Dental Health Services Research Unit (DHSRU) (Nugent et al, 2000). This model utilised historical trends for dental data collected at age 5 (Todd and Dodd, 1985, Nugent et al, 2000; and NDIP, 2003) to predict the dental health of the cohort at age 12 in 2010. From the preliminary analysis (Chart 1), it can be seen that the DMFT of 12-year-olds is expected to fall (improve) slightly until 2007, as the trend in 5-year-olds decreased slightly towards the end of the last century. However, after this predicted initial improvement, a deterioration is predicted by 2010, due to the marginal deterioration in 5-year-olds in 2003 (see second chart on the Oral health: children - trend data page).
Please note that since this model was developed, 2004 and 2006 data for 5-year-olds have been released by NDIP which show a significant improvement. The test will be to see if this improvement continues.
Also, it should be noted that these future trends do not take into account the potential impact of preventive measures, introduced since 2000, in an attempt to address the dental health problem. These measures include community-based and dental service health improvement initiatives.
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