Population: projections for Scotland

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The latest set of population projections for Scotland (see Chart 1) produced by the General Register Office for Scotland show the total population of Scotland rising from 5.08 million in 2004 to 5.13 million in 2019 before falling to 5.07 million by 2031. Longer term projections for up to 40 years ahead show a continuing decline after 2031 to 4.86 million in 2044.

It should be borne in mind that the these projections are very sensitive to relatively small changes in the underlying assumptions and should therefore be treated with caution.  It should be noted also that, despite the projected rise in the size of the population over the next 15 years, Scotland's population is still projected to age markedly.

Further more detailed information can be accessed directly from the GROS' report - Projected Population of Scotland (2004 Based).

The main changes in the age structure of Scotland's population illustrated in Chart 2 are that:

the number of children aged under 16 is projected to decrease by 15 per cent from 0.94 million in 2004 to 0.79 million by 2031;

the number of people of working age is projected to fall by 7 per cent from 3.18 million in 2004 to 2.96 million in 2031;

the number of people of pensionable age is projected to rise by 35 per cent from 0.97 million in 2004 to 1.31 million in 2031;

Further information on these projections can be obtained from the GROS' report - Projected Population of Scotland (2004 Based).