Healthy life expectancy: Scotland

Males

Chart 1 and the accompanying Table 1  (47KB) show the patterns for life expectancy (LE) and healthy life expectancy (HLE) at birth for males in Scotland, over the period 1980 to 2008. In addition to the 1-year period data which indicate trends over the full 29 years, more robust 5-year period data for selected years are shown as a check. 95% confidence intervals are presented to give some indication of the stability of the estimates.

• Estimates of male LE at birth based on single years of data have increased from 68.7 years in 1980 to 75.3 years in 2008; an increase of 6.6 years overall (or 10% of the 1980 figure). 
• The more robust estimates for LE at birth based on 5-year periods (1994-98, 1996-2000, 1999-2003 and 2001-05) are in good agreement with the single year figures. 
• Estimates of male HLE at birth based on single years are quite variable, but like LE demonstrate an overall upward trend. HLE increased from 62.6 to 68.1 years over the 29-year period; an increase of 5.5 years overall (or 9% of the 1980 figure). The wide confidence intervals reflect the use of survey data for the self-assessed health (SAH) component of HLE. They became narrower in 1999 when the Scottish Household Survey (with a larger sample size) became available and was used in place of the General Household Survey. 
• The more robust estimate for HLE at birth for the 5-year period 1999-2003 (based on 5 years of data on deaths and populations, and a single year of data for SAH from the Scotland Census for 2001, the middle year) agrees closely with the single year figure. Unfortunately 2001 was the first year of the Census to ask about SAH, so comparable HLE data cannot be calculated for previous years. 
• Overall, Chart 1 indicates a slight divergence of the trends for males in LE and HLE at birth. As explained in the introduction, this is undesirable as it indicates that the average baby boy would be expected to spend more years in ‘not good’ health if born in 2008 (7.3 years) than in 1980 (6.2 years). However, the proportion of life expected to be spent in ‘good’ health (HLE/LE) is fairly constant over time (0.9), indicating neither a compression nor an expansion of morbidity when assessed by this measure.

Females

Chart 2 and the accompanying Table 2  (49KB) show the corresponding patterns for LE and HLE at birth for females in Scotland, over the 29-year period 1980 to 2008. (Note that the chart y axis scale is different from Chart 1.)

• Estimates of female LE at birth based on single years of data have increased from 75.1 years in 1980 to 80.0 years in 2008; an increase of 4.9 years overall (or 7% of the 1980 figure). 
• The more robust estimates for LE at birth for 5-year periods (1994-98, 1996-2000, 1999-2003 and 2001-05) are in good agreement with the single year figures. 
• Estimates of female HLE at birth based on single years are quite variable, but like LE demonstrate an overall upward trend. HLE increased from 65.9 to 70.8 years over the 29-year period; an increase of 4.8 years overall (or 7% of the 1980 figure). 
• The estimate of HLE at birth for the 5-year period 1999-2003 based on SAH from the 2001 Scotland Census (70.2 years) is significantly higher than the single year estimate for 2001 based on SAH from the Scottish Household Survey (69.2 years). The former is likely to be more accurate because of the far larger sample size in the Census than in the Survey. Further details are given in the technical paper  (155KB), section 2.  
• Females show only a slight tendency for LE and HLE at birth to diverge over time. The average baby girl would be expected to spend just over 9 years in ‘not good’ health if born in 1980 or 2008. The proportion of life expected to be spent in ‘good’ health (HLE/LE) is fairly constant over time (0.9), indicating neither a compression nor an expansion of morbidity.

Comparison of patterns for males and females

The more robust 5-year period (1999-2003) data for Scotland in Charts 1 and 2 demonstrate that:

• Females have greater longevity than males, with LE at birth over 5 years longer for females (78.7 years) than males (73.3 years). 
• Females have a greater HLE at birth than males, although the difference of nearly 4 years (females 70.2 years minus males 66.3 years) is less than for LE. 
• However females are expected to spend on average 1.5 years longer in ‘not good’ health than males (8.5 compared with 7.0 years).

Looking at time trends in the single year data in Charts 1 and 2 and the accompanying tables:

• The difference between males and females in LE at birth was 6.4 years in 1980, falling to 4.7 years in 2008. 
• The difference between males and females in HLE at birth was 3.4 years in 1980, falling to 2.7 years in 2008. 
• Therefore, the gap between the sexes in both LE and HLE at birth has narrowed over time.

Further information

LE and HLE can be estimated for people of various ages, not just at birth. Table 3 provides the life tables for males and females  (30KB) for Scotland, based on data for the 5-year period 1999-2003 (as presented above and in the Scottish health and wellbeing profiles). These show that, for example, an average man aged 65 could expect to live a further 14.9 years, 11.6 of them in ‘good’ health. An average 65-year-old woman could expect to live a further 17.9 years, 13.7 of them in ‘good’ health.

In addition to LE and HLE at different ages (with 95% confidence limits), Table 3 also shows for each age group: the population estimate, number of death registrations, proportion of population surviving to a specific age, number reporting SAH, proportion with ‘not good’ health, and period expected to be spent in ‘not good’ health.

The technical paper  (155KB) provides further information on life tables and methodology, data sources, etc.