Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD): mortality data

As shown in Chart 1, the reported annual mortality rate due to COPD decreased between 2023 and 2024 for males and females. This decrease follows a sharp decline during 2020 and 2021 during the COVID-19 pandemic and subsequent rise to pre-pandemic rates between 2021 and 2023. When standardised to control for age differences using the 2013 European Standard Population, mortality in males was estimated to be 52.9 deaths per 100,000 in 2024, a 9.4% decrease on the previous year. In females, a smaller decrease of 3.0% to 51.9 deaths per 100,000 was reported for the same period.

The decrease in mortality due to COPD during the COVID-19 pandemic can be explained by the increased mortality due to COVID-19 in COPD sufferers, with a 2021 review by Gerayeli et al finding mortality to be almost 2.5 times greater in COPD sufferers than non-sufferers. As the mortality figures presented here include only records where COPD was recorded as the “underlying” or primary cause of death, this likely excludes COPD sufferers for whom the cause of death was recorded as COVID-19.

In the long-term, the annual mortality rate due to COPD has been declining in males, from 97.3 to 52.9 deaths per 100,000 population between 1996 and 2024 (-45.6%). In females, annual mortality has increased slightly over the same period, from 48.0 to 51.9 deaths per 100,000 population (+8.1%), though the overall trend has been flat. As COPD is caused primarily by smoking, with a multi-decade lag between smoking and onset of disease, this rise in mortality is likely caused by smoking rates peaking later in females than males (Lopez, 1994). Sex-based differences in mortality have been eliminated over the past three decades, with the ratio of male to female deaths rates falling from 2:1 to 1.02:1 between 1996 and 2024. 

More data on deaths due to COPD, including breakdowns by council area and health board, can be found in the ScotPHO Profiles Tool.

Age-standardised Death Rates are also published by the National Records of Scotland (NRS) for respiratory diseases as a whole. Please note that NRS includes non-Scotland residents in their analysis.